Composite projection engine

College Football Matchup Simulator

Team Selection

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

6-3 · 68.8 PWR

96%

OSU win probability

Projected line: OSU -11.3

6-3 · 87.0 PWR

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

55QB vs QB79

-10.1 OSU advantage — 24-point index gap over Northwestern (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). OSU Top 25 level.

56WR Room vs WR Room77

-8.8 OSU advantage — 21-point index gap over Northwestern (explosive pass rate and yards per target). OSU Top 25 level.

59RB Room vs RB Room73

-5.9 OSU advantage — 14-point index gap over Northwestern (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OSU Top 25 level.

57Run Blocking vs Run Defense71

-5.9 OSU advantage — 14-point index gap over Northwestern (line yards against stuff rate). OSU Above average.

52Offensive Line vs Pass Rush71

-8.0 OSU advantage — 19-point index gap over Northwestern (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). OSU Above average.

56Pass Game vs Coverage78

-9.2 OSU advantage — 22-point index gap over Northwestern (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). OSU Top 25 level.

50Pass Rush vs Offensive Line71

-8.8 OSU advantage — 21-point index gap over Northwestern (pressure differential in the trenches). OSU Above average.

53Coverage vs Pass Game78

-10.5 OSU advantage — 25-point index gap over Northwestern (coverage grade against target efficiency). OSU Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.