Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.3 IOWA advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). IOWA FBS average.
-1.3 IOWA advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). IOWA FBS average.
-2.9 IOWA advantage — 7-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). IOWA Above average.
-3.8 IOWA advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). IOWA Above average.
-4.2 IOWA advantage — 10-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). IOWA Above average.
-4.2 IOWA advantage — 10-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). IOWA Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
Even matchup — both units index the same
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.