Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

0-2 · 44.3 PWR

96%

IOWA win probability

Projected line: IOWA -21.1

2-0 · 78.4 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

27QB vs QB53

-10.9 IOWA advantage — 26-point index gap over Northern Illinois (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). IOWA FBS average.

31WR Room vs WR Room53

-9.2 IOWA advantage — 22-point index gap over Northern Illinois (explosive pass rate and yards per target). IOWA FBS average.

28RB Room vs RB Room60

-13.4 IOWA advantage — 32-point index gap over Northern Illinois (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). IOWA Above average.

27Run Blocking vs Run Defense63

-15.1 IOWA advantage — 36-point index gap over Northern Illinois (line yards against stuff rate). IOWA Above average.

23Offensive Line vs Pass Rush65

-17.6 IOWA advantage — 42-point index gap over Northern Illinois (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). IOWA Above average.

31Pass Game vs Coverage60

-12.2 IOWA advantage — 29-point index gap over Northern Illinois (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). IOWA Above average.

34Pass Rush vs Offensive Line58

-10.1 IOWA advantage — 24-point index gap over Northern Illinois (pressure differential in the trenches). IOWA Above average.

39Coverage vs Pass Game52

-5.5 IOWA advantage — 13-point index gap over Northern Illinois (coverage grade against target efficiency). IOWA FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.