Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Northern Illinois is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
ARIZ win probability
Projected line: ARIZ -17.1
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-10.9 ARIZ advantage — 26-point index gap over Northern Illinois (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ARIZ FBS average.
-7.1 ARIZ advantage — 17-point index gap over Northern Illinois (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ARIZ FBS average.
-11.8 ARIZ advantage — 28-point index gap over Northern Illinois (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ARIZ FBS average.
-14.3 ARIZ advantage — 34-point index gap over Northern Illinois (line yards against stuff rate). ARIZ Above average.
-15.5 ARIZ advantage — 37-point index gap over Northern Illinois (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ARIZ Above average.
-10.5 ARIZ advantage — 25-point index gap over Northern Illinois (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ARIZ FBS average.
-8.4 ARIZ advantage — 20-point index gap over Northern Illinois (pressure differential in the trenches). ARIZ FBS average.
-4.2 ARIZ advantage — 10-point index gap over Northern Illinois (coverage grade against target efficiency). ARIZ FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.