Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-0.8 TXST advantage — 2-point index gap over North Texas (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TXST FBS average.
+0.8 UNT advantage — 2-point index gap over Texas State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UNT FBS average.
+0.4 UNT advantage — 1-point index gap over Texas State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UNT FBS average.
-0.8 TXST advantage — 2-point index gap over North Texas (line yards against stuff rate). TXST FBS average.
+2.1 UNT advantage — 5-point index gap over Texas State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UNT FBS average.
+4.2 UNT advantage — 10-point index gap over Texas State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UNT FBS average.
-4.6 TXST advantage — 11-point index gap over North Texas (pressure differential in the trenches). TXST FBS average.
-8.4 TXST advantage — 20-point index gap over North Texas (coverage grade against target efficiency). TXST FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.