Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 55.9 PWR

96%

IU win probability

Projected line: IU -16.6

2-0 · 82.7 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

44QB vs QB69

-10.5 IU advantage — 25-point index gap over North Texas (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). IU Above average.

48WR Room vs WR Room69

-8.8 IU advantage — 21-point index gap over North Texas (explosive pass rate and yards per target). IU Above average.

44RB Room vs RB Room50

-2.5 IU advantage — 6-point index gap over North Texas (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). IU FBS average.

47Run Blocking vs Run Defense49

-0.8 IU advantage — 2-point index gap over North Texas (line yards against stuff rate). IU FBS average.

47Offensive Line vs Pass Rush49

-0.8 IU advantage — 2-point index gap over North Texas (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). IU FBS average.

47Pass Game vs Coverage50

-1.3 IU advantage — 3-point index gap over North Texas (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). IU FBS average.

34Pass Rush vs Offensive Line59

-10.5 IU advantage — 25-point index gap over North Texas (pressure differential in the trenches). IU Above average.

26Coverage vs Pass Game70

-18.5 IU advantage — 44-point index gap over North Texas (coverage grade against target efficiency). IU Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.