Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — North Dakota State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
NDSU win probability
Projected line: NDSU -6.7
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.8 NDSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Sacramento State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). NDSU Below average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+0.4 NDSU advantage — 1-point index gap over Sacramento State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). NDSU Below average.
-0.4 SAC advantage — 1-point index gap over North Dakota State (line yards against stuff rate). SAC FBS average.
-2.9 SAC advantage — 7-point index gap over North Dakota State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SAC FBS average.
-2.5 SAC advantage — 6-point index gap over North Dakota State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SAC FBS average.
+2.1 NDSU advantage — 5-point index gap over Sacramento State (pressure differential in the trenches). NDSU FBS average.
+3.8 NDSU advantage — 9-point index gap over Sacramento State (coverage grade against target efficiency). NDSU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.