Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — North Dakota State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
NDSU win probability
Projected line: NDSU -12.5
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+11.8 NDSU advantage — 28-point index gap over Air Force (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). NDSU Below average.
+12.2 NDSU advantage — 29-point index gap over Air Force (explosive pass rate and yards per target). NDSU Below average.
+5.5 NDSU advantage — 13-point index gap over Air Force (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). NDSU Below average.
+8.8 NDSU advantage — 21-point index gap over Air Force (line yards against stuff rate). NDSU FBS average.
+7.6 NDSU advantage — 18-point index gap over Air Force (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). NDSU Below average.
+5.0 NDSU advantage — 12-point index gap over Air Force (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). NDSU Below average.
+9.7 NDSU advantage — 23-point index gap over Air Force (pressure differential in the trenches). NDSU FBS average.
+16.4 NDSU advantage — 39-point index gap over Air Force (coverage grade against target efficiency). NDSU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.