Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-4.6 NEB advantage — 11-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). NEB Above average.
-5.0 NEB advantage — 12-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). NEB Above average.
-5.0 NEB advantage — 12-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). NEB Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-2.1 NEB advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). NEB Above average.
-5.5 NEB advantage — 13-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). NEB Above average.
-0.8 NEB advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (pressure differential in the trenches). NEB Above average.
-4.2 NEB advantage — 10-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). NEB Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.