Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-0.4 GAST advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). GAST FBS average.
+0.8 COLO advantage — 2-point index gap over Georgia State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.
-0.4 GAST advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). GAST FBS average.
+3.8 COLO advantage — 9-point index gap over Georgia State (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Georgia State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+2.5 COLO advantage — 6-point index gap over Georgia State (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Georgia State (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.