Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.1 PWR

61%

UNC win probability

Projected line: UNC -1.9

1-1 · 72.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

56QB vs QB49

+2.9 UNC advantage — 7-point index gap over TCU (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UNC FBS average.

54WR Room vs WR Room51

+1.3 UNC advantage — 3-point index gap over TCU (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UNC FBS average.

54RB Room vs RB Room51

+1.3 UNC advantage — 3-point index gap over TCU (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UNC FBS average.

58Run Blocking vs Run Defense54

+1.7 UNC advantage — 4-point index gap over TCU (line yards against stuff rate). UNC Above average.

54Offensive Line vs Pass Rush56

-0.8 TCU advantage — 2-point index gap over North Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TCU FBS average.

55Pass Game vs Coverage54

+0.4 UNC advantage — 1-point index gap over TCU (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UNC FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line51

+2.9 UNC advantage — 7-point index gap over TCU (pressure differential in the trenches). UNC Above average.

59Coverage vs Pass Game50

+3.8 UNC advantage — 9-point index gap over TCU (coverage grade against target efficiency). UNC Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.