Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.1 PWR

51%

CLEM win probability

Projected line: CLEM -0.1

1-1 · 75.3 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

56QB vs QB50

+2.5 UNC advantage — 6-point index gap over Clemson (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UNC FBS average.

54WR Room vs WR Room54

Even matchup — both units index the same

54RB Room vs RB Room52

+0.8 UNC advantage — 2-point index gap over Clemson (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UNC FBS average.

58Run Blocking vs Run Defense56

+0.8 UNC advantage — 2-point index gap over Clemson (line yards against stuff rate). UNC Above average.

54Offensive Line vs Pass Rush59

-2.1 CLEM advantage — 5-point index gap over North Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). CLEM Above average.

55Pass Game vs Coverage61

-2.5 CLEM advantage — 6-point index gap over North Carolina (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). CLEM Above average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line49

+3.8 UNC advantage — 9-point index gap over Clemson (pressure differential in the trenches). UNC Above average.

59Coverage vs Pass Game53

+2.5 UNC advantage — 6-point index gap over Clemson (coverage grade against target efficiency). UNC Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.