Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-3.8 ARK advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ARK Above average.
-2.5 ARK advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ARK FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Arkansas (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
-2.1 ARK advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). ARK Above average.
-1.7 ARK advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ARK Above average.
-4.6 ARK advantage — 11-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ARK Above average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Arkansas (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-2.1 ARK advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). ARK FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.