Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-4.2 UVA advantage — 10-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UVA Above average.
-3.4 UVA advantage — 8-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UVA Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+0.8 COLO advantage — 2-point index gap over Virginia (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Virginia (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
-2.9 UVA advantage — 7-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UVA FBS average.
+2.5 COLO advantage — 6-point index gap over Virginia (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-3.4 UVA advantage — 8-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). UVA Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.