Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

96%

COLO win probability

Projected line: COLO -12.6

0-2 · 55.2 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB40

+4.2 COLO advantage — 10-point index gap over Sam Houston (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room40

+4.2 COLO advantage — 10-point index gap over Sam Houston (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room33

+8.4 COLO advantage — 20-point index gap over Sam Houston (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense42

+5.0 COLO advantage — 12-point index gap over Sam Houston (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush46

+3.8 COLO advantage — 9-point index gap over Sam Houston (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage41

+3.8 COLO advantage — 9-point index gap over Sam Houston (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line36

+9.2 COLO advantage — 22-point index gap over Sam Houston (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game40

+5.0 COLO advantage — 12-point index gap over Sam Houston (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.