Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-2 · 47.0 PWR

71%

HAW win probability

Projected line: HAW -3.8

1-2 · 53.2 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

35QB vs QB35

Even matchup — both units index the same

37WR Room vs WR Room37

Even matchup — both units index the same

35RB Room vs RB Room39

-1.7 HAW advantage — 4-point index gap over New Mexico State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). HAW Below average.

36Run Blocking vs Run Defense36

Even matchup — both units index the same

35Offensive Line vs Pass Rush37

-0.8 HAW advantage — 2-point index gap over New Mexico State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). HAW Below average.

37Pass Game vs Coverage39

-0.8 HAW advantage — 2-point index gap over New Mexico State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). HAW Below average.

33Pass Rush vs Offensive Line40

-2.9 HAW advantage — 7-point index gap over New Mexico State (pressure differential in the trenches). HAW Below average.

35Coverage vs Pass Game36

-0.4 HAW advantage — 1-point index gap over New Mexico State (coverage grade against target efficiency). HAW Below average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.