Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — New Mexico State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
FSU win probability
Projected line: FSU -17.6
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-10.1 FSU advantage — 24-point index gap over New Mexico State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). FSU Above average.
-9.7 FSU advantage — 23-point index gap over New Mexico State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). FSU Above average.
-11.3 FSU advantage — 27-point index gap over New Mexico State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). FSU Above average.
-9.2 FSU advantage — 22-point index gap over New Mexico State (line yards against stuff rate). FSU Above average.
-9.2 FSU advantage — 22-point index gap over New Mexico State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). FSU FBS average.
-8.0 FSU advantage — 19-point index gap over New Mexico State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). FSU FBS average.
-11.3 FSU advantage — 27-point index gap over New Mexico State (pressure differential in the trenches). FSU Above average.
-10.5 FSU advantage — 25-point index gap over New Mexico State (coverage grade against target efficiency). FSU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.