Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

Color clash detected — New Mexico is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.

2-0 · 54.3 PWR

96%

OU win probability

Projected line: OU -18.4

1-1 · 84.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

38QB vs QB74

-15.1 OU advantage — 36-point index gap over New Mexico (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). OU Top 25 level.

34WR Room vs WR Room73

-16.4 OU advantage — 39-point index gap over New Mexico (explosive pass rate and yards per target). OU Top 25 level.

43RB Room vs RB Room63

-8.4 OU advantage — 20-point index gap over New Mexico (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OU Above average.

45Run Blocking vs Run Defense67

-9.2 OU advantage — 22-point index gap over New Mexico (line yards against stuff rate). OU Above average.

39Offensive Line vs Pass Rush74

-14.7 OU advantage — 35-point index gap over New Mexico (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). OU Top 25 level.

35Pass Game vs Coverage69

-14.3 OU advantage — 34-point index gap over New Mexico (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). OU Above average.

47Pass Rush vs Offensive Line66

-8.0 OU advantage — 19-point index gap over New Mexico (pressure differential in the trenches). OU Above average.

48Coverage vs Pass Game74

-10.9 OU advantage — 26-point index gap over New Mexico (coverage grade against target efficiency). OU Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.