Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 54.8 PWR

53%

MTSU win probability

Projected line: MTSU -0.6

1-1 · 55.8 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

44QB vs QB43

+0.4 NEV advantage — 1-point index gap over Middle Tennessee (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). NEV FBS average.

47WR Room vs WR Room42

+2.1 NEV advantage — 5-point index gap over Middle Tennessee (explosive pass rate and yards per target). NEV FBS average.

51RB Room vs RB Room52

-0.4 MTSU advantage — 1-point index gap over Nevada (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MTSU FBS average.

49Run Blocking vs Run Defense40

+3.8 NEV advantage — 9-point index gap over Middle Tennessee (line yards against stuff rate). NEV FBS average.

47Offensive Line vs Pass Rush37

+4.2 NEV advantage — 10-point index gap over Middle Tennessee (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). NEV FBS average.

47Pass Game vs Coverage42

+2.1 NEV advantage — 5-point index gap over Middle Tennessee (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). NEV FBS average.

40Pass Rush vs Offensive Line48

-3.4 MTSU advantage — 8-point index gap over Nevada (pressure differential in the trenches). MTSU FBS average.

43Coverage vs Pass Game42

+0.4 NEV advantage — 1-point index gap over Middle Tennessee (coverage grade against target efficiency). NEV FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.