Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-5.0 UVA advantage — 12-point index gap over NC State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UVA Above average.
-5.9 UVA advantage — 14-point index gap over NC State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UVA Above average.
-1.7 UVA advantage — 4-point index gap over NC State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UVA FBS average.
+0.8 NCSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Virginia (line yards against stuff rate). NCSU FBS average.
-0.4 UVA advantage — 1-point index gap over NC State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UVA FBS average.
-5.0 UVA advantage — 12-point index gap over NC State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UVA FBS average.
-0.4 UVA advantage — 1-point index gap over NC State (pressure differential in the trenches). UVA FBS average.
-7.6 UVA advantage — 18-point index gap over NC State (coverage grade against target efficiency). UVA Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.