Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.5 VAN advantage — 6-point index gap over NC State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). VAN FBS average.
-3.4 VAN advantage — 8-point index gap over NC State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). VAN FBS average.
-2.5 VAN advantage — 6-point index gap over NC State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). VAN FBS average.
+1.7 NCSU advantage — 4-point index gap over Vanderbilt (line yards against stuff rate). NCSU FBS average.
-3.4 VAN advantage — 8-point index gap over NC State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). VAN Above average.
-4.6 VAN advantage — 11-point index gap over NC State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). VAN FBS average.
-2.5 VAN advantage — 6-point index gap over NC State (pressure differential in the trenches). VAN FBS average.
-4.2 VAN advantage — 10-point index gap over NC State (coverage grade against target efficiency). VAN FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.