Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-7.1 ASU advantage — 17-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ASU Above average.
-6.3 ASU advantage — 15-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ASU Above average.
-3.8 ASU advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ASU Above average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Arizona State (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-3.8 ASU advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ASU Above average.
-0.4 ASU advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (pressure differential in the trenches). ASU Above average.
-5.9 ASU advantage — 14-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). ASU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.