Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Missouri State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
TA&M win probability
Projected line: TA&M -27.3
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-17.6 TA&M advantage — 42-point index gap over Missouri State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TA&M Above average.
-16.4 TA&M advantage — 39-point index gap over Missouri State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TA&M Above average.
-16.4 TA&M advantage — 39-point index gap over Missouri State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TA&M Above average.
-17.6 TA&M advantage — 42-point index gap over Missouri State (line yards against stuff rate). TA&M Top 25 level.
-14.7 TA&M advantage — 35-point index gap over Missouri State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TA&M Above average.
-20.6 TA&M advantage — 49-point index gap over Missouri State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TA&M Top 25 level.
-13.4 TA&M advantage — 32-point index gap over Missouri State (pressure differential in the trenches). TA&M Above average.
-12.6 TA&M advantage — 30-point index gap over Missouri State (coverage grade against target efficiency). TA&M Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.