Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 79.9 PWR

73%

MIZ win probability

Projected line: MIZ -4.3

1-1 · 73.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

69QB vs QB63

+2.5 MIZ advantage — 6-point index gap over Kansas (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MIZ Above average.

66WR Room vs WR Room61

+2.1 MIZ advantage — 5-point index gap over Kansas (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MIZ Above average.

59RB Room vs RB Room57

+0.8 MIZ advantage — 2-point index gap over Kansas (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MIZ Above average.

61Run Blocking vs Run Defense68

-2.9 KU advantage — 7-point index gap over Missouri (line yards against stuff rate). KU Above average.

64Offensive Line vs Pass Rush60

+1.7 MIZ advantage — 4-point index gap over Kansas (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MIZ Above average.

67Pass Game vs Coverage57

+4.2 MIZ advantage — 10-point index gap over Kansas (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MIZ Above average.

60Pass Rush vs Offensive Line60

Even matchup — both units index the same

67Coverage vs Pass Game62

+2.1 MIZ advantage — 5-point index gap over Kansas (coverage grade against target efficiency). MIZ Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.