Composite projection engine

College Football Matchup Simulator

Team Selection

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

6-3 · 70.8 PWR

96%

UGA win probability

Projected line: UGA -13.9

8-1 · 93.2 PWR

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

69QB vs QB79

-4.2 UGA advantage — 10-point index gap over Missouri (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UGA Top 25 level.

66WR Room vs WR Room76

-4.2 UGA advantage — 10-point index gap over Missouri (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UGA Top 25 level.

59RB Room vs RB Room88

-12.2 UGA advantage — 29-point index gap over Missouri (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UGA Top 25 level.

61Run Blocking vs Run Defense88

-11.3 UGA advantage — 27-point index gap over Missouri (line yards against stuff rate). UGA Top 25 level.

64Offensive Line vs Pass Rush74

-4.2 UGA advantage — 10-point index gap over Missouri (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UGA Top 25 level.

67Pass Game vs Coverage75

-3.4 UGA advantage — 8-point index gap over Missouri (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UGA Top 25 level.

60Pass Rush vs Offensive Line81

-8.8 UGA advantage — 21-point index gap over Missouri (pressure differential in the trenches). UGA Top 25 level.

67Coverage vs Pass Game77

-4.2 UGA advantage — 10-point index gap over Missouri (coverage grade against target efficiency). UGA Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.