Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
COLO win probability
Projected line: COLO -17.5
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+4.6 COLO advantage — 11-point index gap over Sacramento State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.
+4.2 COLO advantage — 10-point index gap over Sacramento State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.
+5.5 COLO advantage — 13-point index gap over Sacramento State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
+4.2 COLO advantage — 10-point index gap over Sacramento State (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+3.8 COLO advantage — 9-point index gap over Sacramento State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
+1.7 COLO advantage — 4-point index gap over Sacramento State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.
+6.7 COLO advantage — 16-point index gap over Sacramento State (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
+5.0 COLO advantage — 12-point index gap over Sacramento State (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.