Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Mississippi State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
MSST win probability
Projected line: MSST -0.1
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.9 SC advantage — 7-point index gap over Mississippi State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SC Above average.
-2.5 SC advantage — 6-point index gap over Mississippi State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SC Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+2.1 MSST advantage — 5-point index gap over South Carolina (line yards against stuff rate). MSST Above average.
+2.1 MSST advantage — 5-point index gap over South Carolina (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MSST Above average.
-1.3 SC advantage — 3-point index gap over Mississippi State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SC Above average.
-3.8 SC advantage — 9-point index gap over Mississippi State (pressure differential in the trenches). SC Above average.
-2.5 SC advantage — 6-point index gap over Mississippi State (coverage grade against target efficiency). SC Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.