Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Mississippi State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
MSST win probability
Projected line: MSST -6.9
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.4 MSST advantage — 1-point index gap over Minnesota (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MSST Above average.
+1.3 MSST advantage — 3-point index gap over Minnesota (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MSST Above average.
+7.6 MSST advantage — 18-point index gap over Minnesota (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MSST Above average.
+4.6 MSST advantage — 11-point index gap over Minnesota (line yards against stuff rate). MSST Above average.
+4.2 MSST advantage — 10-point index gap over Minnesota (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MSST Above average.
+2.9 MSST advantage — 7-point index gap over Minnesota (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MSST Above average.
+0.4 MSST advantage — 1-point index gap over Minnesota (pressure differential in the trenches). MSST Above average.
+1.3 MSST advantage — 3-point index gap over Minnesota (coverage grade against target efficiency). MSST Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.