Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
MTSU win probability
Projected line: MTSU -2.5
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+1.3 MTSU advantage — 3-point index gap over Marshall (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MTSU FBS average.
+0.8 MTSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Marshall (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MTSU FBS average.
+8.0 MTSU advantage — 19-point index gap over Marshall (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MTSU FBS average.
+2.9 MTSU advantage — 7-point index gap over Marshall (line yards against stuff rate). MTSU FBS average.
+4.2 MTSU advantage — 10-point index gap over Marshall (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MTSU FBS average.
+4.6 MTSU advantage — 11-point index gap over Marshall (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MTSU FBS average.
-0.8 MRSH advantage — 2-point index gap over Middle Tennessee (pressure differential in the trenches). MRSH Below average.
+0.8 MTSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Marshall (coverage grade against target efficiency). MTSU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.