Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Michigan State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-7.6 ND advantage — 18-point index gap over Michigan State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ND Above average.
-6.7 ND advantage — 16-point index gap over Michigan State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ND Above average.
-8.0 ND advantage — 19-point index gap over Michigan State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ND Above average.
-8.4 ND advantage — 20-point index gap over Michigan State (line yards against stuff rate). ND Above average.
-7.6 ND advantage — 18-point index gap over Michigan State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ND Above average.
-7.1 ND advantage — 17-point index gap over Michigan State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ND Above average.
-5.5 ND advantage — 13-point index gap over Michigan State (pressure differential in the trenches). ND Above average.
-7.6 ND advantage — 18-point index gap over Michigan State (coverage grade against target efficiency). ND Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.