Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 51.8 PWR

96%

PITT win probability

Projected line: PITT -13.6

2-0 · 73.7 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

42QB vs QB56

-5.9 PITT advantage — 14-point index gap over Miami (OH) (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). PITT FBS average.

49WR Room vs WR Room58

-3.8 PITT advantage — 9-point index gap over Miami (OH) (explosive pass rate and yards per target). PITT Above average.

35RB Room vs RB Room55

-8.4 PITT advantage — 20-point index gap over Miami (OH) (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). PITT FBS average.

38Run Blocking vs Run Defense55

-7.1 PITT advantage — 17-point index gap over Miami (OH) (line yards against stuff rate). PITT FBS average.

42Offensive Line vs Pass Rush49

-2.9 PITT advantage — 7-point index gap over Miami (OH) (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). PITT FBS average.

47Pass Game vs Coverage50

-1.3 PITT advantage — 3-point index gap over Miami (OH) (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). PITT FBS average.

39Pass Rush vs Offensive Line56

-7.1 PITT advantage — 17-point index gap over Miami (OH) (pressure differential in the trenches). PITT FBS average.

38Coverage vs Pass Game58

-8.4 PITT advantage — 20-point index gap over Miami (OH) (coverage grade against target efficiency). PITT Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.