Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 51.8 PWR

96%

CIN win probability

Projected line: CIN -9.7

2-0 · 67.5 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

42QB vs QB45

-1.3 CIN advantage — 3-point index gap over Miami (OH) (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). CIN FBS average.

49WR Room vs WR Room46

+1.3 M-OH advantage — 3-point index gap over Cincinnati (explosive pass rate and yards per target). M-OH FBS average.

35RB Room vs RB Room52

-7.1 CIN advantage — 17-point index gap over Miami (OH) (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). CIN FBS average.

38Run Blocking vs Run Defense47

-3.8 CIN advantage — 9-point index gap over Miami (OH) (line yards against stuff rate). CIN FBS average.

42Offensive Line vs Pass Rush53

-4.6 CIN advantage — 11-point index gap over Miami (OH) (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). CIN FBS average.

47Pass Game vs Coverage52

-2.1 CIN advantage — 5-point index gap over Miami (OH) (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). CIN FBS average.

39Pass Rush vs Offensive Line49

-4.2 CIN advantage — 10-point index gap over Miami (OH) (pressure differential in the trenches). CIN FBS average.

38Coverage vs Pass Game46

-3.4 CIN advantage — 8-point index gap over Miami (OH) (coverage grade against target efficiency). CIN FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.