Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+3.8 MEM advantage — 9-point index gap over UNLV (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MEM FBS average.
+2.1 MEM advantage — 5-point index gap over UNLV (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MEM FBS average.
+0.4 MEM advantage — 1-point index gap over UNLV (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MEM FBS average.
+3.4 MEM advantage — 8-point index gap over UNLV (line yards against stuff rate). MEM FBS average.
+0.4 MEM advantage — 1-point index gap over UNLV (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MEM FBS average.
+0.8 MEM advantage — 2-point index gap over UNLV (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MEM FBS average.
+2.9 MEM advantage — 7-point index gap over UNLV (pressure differential in the trenches). MEM FBS average.
+0.4 MEM advantage — 1-point index gap over UNLV (coverage grade against target efficiency). MEM FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.