Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.8 MD advantage — 2-point index gap over UConn (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MD FBS average.
+0.8 MD advantage — 2-point index gap over UConn (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MD FBS average.
+3.8 MD advantage — 9-point index gap over UConn (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MD Above average.
+0.8 MD advantage — 2-point index gap over UConn (line yards against stuff rate). MD FBS average.
+5.0 MD advantage — 12-point index gap over UConn (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MD Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+5.5 MD advantage — 13-point index gap over UConn (pressure differential in the trenches). MD Above average.
+2.9 MD advantage — 7-point index gap over UConn (coverage grade against target efficiency). MD Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.