Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 51.7 PWR

96%

PSU win probability

Projected line: PSU -18.8

2-0 · 82.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

40QB vs QB75

-14.7 PSU advantage — 35-point index gap over Marshall (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). PSU Top 25 level.

40WR Room vs WR Room75

-14.7 PSU advantage — 35-point index gap over Marshall (explosive pass rate and yards per target). PSU Top 25 level.

33RB Room vs RB Room59

-10.9 PSU advantage — 26-point index gap over Marshall (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). PSU Above average.

30Run Blocking vs Run Defense73

-18.1 PSU advantage — 43-point index gap over Marshall (line yards against stuff rate). PSU Top 25 level.

39Offensive Line vs Pass Rush63

-10.1 PSU advantage — 24-point index gap over Marshall (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). PSU Above average.

40Pass Game vs Coverage66

-10.9 PSU advantage — 26-point index gap over Marshall (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). PSU Above average.

38Pass Rush vs Offensive Line67

-12.2 PSU advantage — 29-point index gap over Marshall (pressure differential in the trenches). PSU Above average.

31Coverage vs Pass Game75

-18.5 PSU advantage — 44-point index gap over Marshall (coverage grade against target efficiency). PSU Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.