Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+5.5 MRSH advantage — 13-point index gap over Missouri State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MRSH Below average.
+5.5 MRSH advantage — 13-point index gap over Missouri State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MRSH Below average.
+1.7 MRSH advantage — 4-point index gap over Missouri State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MRSH Below average.
-2.1 MOST advantage — 5-point index gap over Marshall (line yards against stuff rate). MOST Below average.
+1.3 MRSH advantage — 3-point index gap over Missouri State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MRSH Below average.
+1.7 MRSH advantage — 4-point index gap over Missouri State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MRSH Below average.
+1.3 MRSH advantage — 3-point index gap over Missouri State (pressure differential in the trenches). MRSH Below average.
+1.7 MRSH advantage — 4-point index gap over Missouri State (coverage grade against target efficiency). MRSH Below average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.