Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.9 MISS advantage — 7-point index gap over Louisville (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MISS Above average.
-2.5 MISS advantage — 6-point index gap over Louisville (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MISS Above average.
-2.5 MISS advantage — 6-point index gap over Louisville (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MISS Above average.
-3.8 MISS advantage — 9-point index gap over Louisville (line yards against stuff rate). MISS Above average.
-4.6 MISS advantage — 11-point index gap over Louisville (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MISS Above average.
+0.8 LOU advantage — 2-point index gap over Ole Miss (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). LOU Above average.
-7.6 MISS advantage — 18-point index gap over Louisville (pressure differential in the trenches). MISS Above average.
-6.7 MISS advantage — 16-point index gap over Louisville (coverage grade against target efficiency). MISS Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.