Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

96%

COLO win probability

Projected line: COLO -19.0

1-1 · 45.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB27

+9.7 COLO advantage — 23-point index gap over Missouri State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room27

+9.7 COLO advantage — 23-point index gap over Missouri State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room29

+10.1 COLO advantage — 24-point index gap over Missouri State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense35

+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Missouri State (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush36

+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Missouri State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage36

+5.9 COLO advantage — 14-point index gap over Missouri State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line35

+9.7 COLO advantage — 23-point index gap over Missouri State (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game27

+10.5 COLO advantage — 25-point index gap over Missouri State (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.