Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 44.3 PWR

96%

OSU win probability

Projected line: OSU -28.2

1-1 · 89.8 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

32QB vs QB79

-19.7 OSU advantage — 47-point index gap over Kent State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). OSU Top 25 level.

35WR Room vs WR Room77

-17.6 OSU advantage — 42-point index gap over Kent State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). OSU Top 25 level.

35RB Room vs RB Room73

-16.0 OSU advantage — 38-point index gap over Kent State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OSU Top 25 level.

35Run Blocking vs Run Defense71

-15.1 OSU advantage — 36-point index gap over Kent State (line yards against stuff rate). OSU Above average.

37Offensive Line vs Pass Rush71

-14.3 OSU advantage — 34-point index gap over Kent State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). OSU Above average.

33Pass Game vs Coverage78

-18.9 OSU advantage — 45-point index gap over Kent State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). OSU Top 25 level.

32Pass Rush vs Offensive Line71

-16.4 OSU advantage — 39-point index gap over Kent State (pressure differential in the trenches). OSU Above average.

29Coverage vs Pass Game78

-20.6 OSU advantage — 49-point index gap over Kent State (coverage grade against target efficiency). OSU Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.