Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
SDSU win probability
Projected line: SDSU -2.7
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-3.8 SDSU advantage — 9-point index gap over James Madison (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SDSU FBS average.
-4.6 SDSU advantage — 11-point index gap over James Madison (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SDSU FBS average.
-2.5 SDSU advantage — 6-point index gap over James Madison (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SDSU FBS average.
-1.3 SDSU advantage — 3-point index gap over James Madison (line yards against stuff rate). SDSU FBS average.
+1.3 JMU advantage — 3-point index gap over San Diego State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). JMU FBS average.
-2.1 SDSU advantage — 5-point index gap over James Madison (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SDSU FBS average.
-4.2 SDSU advantage — 10-point index gap over James Madison (pressure differential in the trenches). SDSU FBS average.
-5.0 SDSU advantage — 12-point index gap over James Madison (coverage grade against target efficiency). SDSU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.