Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+4.2 JXST advantage — 10-point index gap over Ohio (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). JXST FBS average.
+3.8 JXST advantage — 9-point index gap over Ohio (explosive pass rate and yards per target). JXST FBS average.
-0.4 OHIO advantage — 1-point index gap over Jacksonville State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OHIO Below average.
+3.4 JXST advantage — 8-point index gap over Ohio (line yards against stuff rate). JXST Below average.
+1.7 JXST advantage — 4-point index gap over Ohio (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). JXST Below average.
+3.4 JXST advantage — 8-point index gap over Ohio (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). JXST FBS average.
+1.7 JXST advantage — 4-point index gap over Ohio (pressure differential in the trenches). JXST FBS average.
+4.2 JXST advantage — 10-point index gap over Ohio (coverage grade against target efficiency). JXST FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.