Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
NDSU win probability
Projected line: NDSU -5.0
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.8 JXST advantage — 2-point index gap over North Dakota State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). JXST FBS average.
+1.7 JXST advantage — 4-point index gap over North Dakota State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). JXST FBS average.
-0.8 NDSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Jacksonville State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). NDSU Below average.
-2.9 NDSU advantage — 7-point index gap over Jacksonville State (line yards against stuff rate). NDSU FBS average.
-2.5 NDSU advantage — 6-point index gap over Jacksonville State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). NDSU FBS average.
-2.1 NDSU advantage — 5-point index gap over Jacksonville State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). NDSU FBS average.
+1.3 JXST advantage — 3-point index gap over North Dakota State (pressure differential in the trenches). JXST FBS average.
+1.7 JXST advantage — 4-point index gap over North Dakota State (coverage grade against target efficiency). JXST FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.