Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.3 IOWA advantage — 3-point index gap over Iowa State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). IOWA FBS average.
+0.8 ISU advantage — 2-point index gap over Iowa (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ISU FBS average.
-4.2 IOWA advantage — 10-point index gap over Iowa State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). IOWA Above average.
-5.5 IOWA advantage — 13-point index gap over Iowa State (line yards against stuff rate). IOWA Above average.
-6.7 IOWA advantage — 16-point index gap over Iowa State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). IOWA Above average.
-2.1 IOWA advantage — 5-point index gap over Iowa State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). IOWA Above average.
+1.7 ISU advantage — 4-point index gap over Iowa (pressure differential in the trenches). ISU Above average.
+0.4 ISU advantage — 1-point index gap over Iowa (coverage grade against target efficiency). ISU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.