Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Colorado is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-3.8 PUR advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). PUR Above average.
-3.8 PUR advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). PUR Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-0.8 PUR advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). PUR FBS average.
-2.1 PUR advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). PUR Above average.
-2.1 PUR advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). PUR FBS average.
+0.8 COLO advantage — 2-point index gap over Purdue (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-2.9 PUR advantage — 7-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). PUR Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.