Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
COLO win probability
Projected line: COLO -19.4
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+9.7 COLO advantage — 23-point index gap over Northern Illinois (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.
+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Northern Illinois (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.
+10.5 COLO advantage — 25-point index gap over Northern Illinois (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
+9.2 COLO advantage — 22-point index gap over Northern Illinois (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+8.8 COLO advantage — 21-point index gap over Northern Illinois (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
+4.6 COLO advantage — 11-point index gap over Northern Illinois (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.
+14.7 COLO advantage — 35-point index gap over Northern Illinois (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
+8.8 COLO advantage — 21-point index gap over Northern Illinois (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.