Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

58%

UTAH win probability

Projected line: UTAH -1.6

2-0 · 78.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB59

-3.8 UTAH advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UTAH Above average.

50WR Room vs WR Room58

-3.4 UTAH advantage — 8-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UTAH Above average.

53RB Room vs RB Room59

-2.5 UTAH advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UTAH Above average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense51

+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Utah (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush51

+1.7 COLO advantage — 4-point index gap over Utah (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage56

-2.5 UTAH advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UTAH FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line59

-0.4 UTAH advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (pressure differential in the trenches). UTAH Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game58

-2.5 UTAH advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). UTAH Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.