Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-8.0 IU advantage — 19-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). IU Above average.
-8.0 IU advantage — 19-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). IU Above average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Indiana (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
+2.1 COLO advantage — 5-point index gap over Indiana (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+2.5 COLO advantage — 6-point index gap over Indiana (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-0.4 IU advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (pressure differential in the trenches). IU Above average.
-7.6 IU advantage — 18-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). IU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.