Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

96%

COLO win probability

Projected line: COLO -14.8

1-1 · 51.8 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB42

+3.4 COLO advantage — 8-point index gap over Miami (OH) (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room49

+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Miami (OH) (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room35

+7.6 COLO advantage — 18-point index gap over Miami (OH) (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense40

+5.9 COLO advantage — 14-point index gap over Miami (OH) (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush39

+6.7 COLO advantage — 16-point index gap over Miami (OH) (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage38

+5.0 COLO advantage — 12-point index gap over Miami (OH) (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line42

+6.7 COLO advantage — 16-point index gap over Miami (OH) (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game47

+2.1 COLO advantage — 5-point index gap over Miami (OH) (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.