Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-2 · 53.2 PWR

91%

STAN win probability

Projected line: STAN -7.5

1-1 · 65.3 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

35QB vs QB52

-7.1 STAN advantage — 17-point index gap over Hawai'i (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). STAN FBS average.

37WR Room vs WR Room52

-6.3 STAN advantage — 15-point index gap over Hawai'i (explosive pass rate and yards per target). STAN FBS average.

39RB Room vs RB Room53

-5.9 STAN advantage — 14-point index gap over Hawai'i (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). STAN FBS average.

43Run Blocking vs Run Defense51

-3.4 STAN advantage — 8-point index gap over Hawai'i (line yards against stuff rate). STAN FBS average.

40Offensive Line vs Pass Rush49

-3.8 STAN advantage — 9-point index gap over Hawai'i (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). STAN FBS average.

36Pass Game vs Coverage50

-5.9 STAN advantage — 14-point index gap over Hawai'i (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). STAN FBS average.

37Pass Rush vs Offensive Line55

-7.6 STAN advantage — 18-point index gap over Hawai'i (pressure differential in the trenches). STAN FBS average.

39Coverage vs Pass Game52

-5.5 STAN advantage — 13-point index gap over Hawai'i (coverage grade against target efficiency). STAN FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.