Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.3 MD advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MD FBS average.
-1.7 MD advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MD FBS average.
-3.8 MD advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MD Above average.
-5.5 MD advantage — 13-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). MD Above average.
-4.2 MD advantage — 10-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MD Above average.
-3.8 MD advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MD Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-0.4 MD advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). MD FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.